Philadelphia, Southeastern PA Power; Democratic Judges in Statewide Races

By Michael Kleiner

So, how ‘bout those judges?  Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht retained their seats on the State Supreme Court. Alice Beck Dubow and Michael Wojcik will return to their jobs on the Superior and Commonwealth Courts, respectively, and Brandon Nueman was elected to the Superior Court and Stella Tsai to Commonwealth Court in their statewide races..

How did it happen? After finding no numbers I couldn’t put in a spreadsheet to create new numbers, they were revealing.

Philadelphia’s turnout of 35.73% is still disappointing but those who showed up or filled in a mail ballot made a statement. They’d like to keep their democracy. When Philadelphia votes, good things happen in the state and nationally.

Donohue and Dougherty drew almost the same number of votes. Dougherty probably received a boost as a hometown guy, drawing 304,347 votes or 86.66%, in the city, while Donohue earned 304,022 votes (86.56%) and Wecht’s 298,313 yeses was still good for 85.83%. Dubow earned 273,151 ayes (85.50%), Wojcik 267,814 (84.95%). In the contested races, Neuman received 303,043 votes in Philadelphia (84.75%) compared to Republican Maria Battista (46,695, 13.06%) and Libertarian Daniel Wassmer (7,566, 2.12%). It’s important to keep an eye on the margin of victory and the Philadelphia gaps ranged from 220,372 to 295,477 votes.

When the statewide results were announced, Donohue had 2,226,602 votes or 61.85%, still within landslide territory, but a 24.71% drop in what she received in Philadelphia. Dougherty received 2,222,976 yes votes statewide, (61.71%); Wecht 2,204,939 (61.52%); Dubow 2,136,635 (62.07%); Wojcik 2,144,896 (62.45%). Neuman received 2,055,747 votes (55.93%, a drop of 28.82%) whileTsai received 2,075,254 votes (56.71%), a drop  of 29.62% of what she received in Philadelphia.

Traditionally, the formula for a Democrat to win in Pennsylvania was to carry Philadelphia by 500,000 votes. In recent years as Philadelphians moved to the suburbs, the surrounding counties have either become Democratic or the gap has narrowed. The formula now includes the city and the Philadelphia suburbs: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties.

It showed. In Montgomery County, where Democrats now have  an advantage, the Democratic candidates’ vote ranged from 208,726 to 218,809, and five exceeded 72.16% or higher. Similarly, in Delaware County, Donohue netted 70.64% (128,177 votes); Dougherty 70.64% (128,037 votes); Wecht 69.93% (126,034 votes); Dubow 69.30% (121,161 votes); Wojcik 70.5%1(122,783 votes), while Neuman netted 65.12%, (120,087 votes), and Tsai 66.11% (121,731 votes). All seven recorded percentages in the 60s in Bucks and Chester County, where neither party has a strong advantage.

The key is looking at the Southeastern Pennsylvania turnout, adding Philadelphia, Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery Counties. Donohue received 919,613 yes votes (73.29%); Dougherty 919,092 (73.30%); Wecht 907,205 (72.73%); Dubow 867,627 (72.55%); Wojcik 863,866 (72.61%); Neuman  882,167 (68.94%), and Tsai 887,161 (69.85%)

They all hit the magic 500,000 margin in Southeastern Pennsylvania,: Donohue by 584,546; Dougherty 584,264; Wecht 566,990; Dubow 566,990; Wojcik 537,945; Neuman 506,871; Tsai 504,194. Southeastern Pennsylvania accounted for almost 42% of the Democratic vote in the state.

What about the rest of the state? For example, subtracting the Southeastern PA votes for Donohue from her overall state votes brings the remainder of ​​1,306,989 votes scattered among the 62 other counties. The No votes remainder is 1,038,232. The Yes votes still control 55% of the remaining votes.

Remarkably, these decisive victories happened with  35.73% turnout in Philadelphia,  45.88% in Delaware County,  50% in Bucks County,  50.18% in Montgomery County, and 51.0% in Chester County. Imagine, Southeastern Pennsylvania’s power and influence if turnout was at the levels of Mt. Airy Democrats divisions.