by Michael Kleiner

Filmmaker Woody Allen is credited with the adage “Eighty percent of success is showing up.” Taking some liberty with his words, in politics a candidate needs a base, a loyal following that’s going to show up and get others to. In the May 19 primary in the 3rd Congressional District race, State Rep. Chris Rabb’s loyal base built over 10 years in office did just that.

The 3rd District is huge, incorporating 33 complete wards and parts of four others, 56% of the city’s wards, and 884 divisions (52% of Philadelphia’s precincts), so the district crosses divergent views and neighborhoods.

The 22nd Ward
My analysis of the election results indicates Rabb won handily. With 44% of the vote, Rabb defeated State Sen. Sharif Street by just over 15% and Dr. Ala Stanford by over 20%. Shaun Griffith was far behind. District-wide, Rabb won 24 wards and 440 divisions to Street’s 12 wards and 373 divisions, and to Stanford’s one ward and 60 divisions. There were ties in 11 divisions.

Mt. Airy Democrats were key to getting out the vote in the 22nd Ward, which was the only closed ward in the Congressional district where Rabb swept every division, capturing 65% of the votes to Street’s 19% and Stanford’s 16%.Indicative of Rabb’s dominance in the Ward is that he received between 100 and 380 votes in 26 of the 29 divisions, whereas Street and Stanford didn’t attain 100 votes in any division of the 22nd.

Ward Leader and 8th District City Councilperson Cindy Bass endorsed Street and delivered no divisions.

Northwest, Open Wards anchor victory
The Rabb victory was anchored in the Northwest and in some open wards, where similar patterns emerged. An open ward is one where committee persons vote on endorsements; in a closed ward, the Ward Leader decides, following the lead of the Democratic City Committee. The eight critical wards were the closed 21st (Roxborough, Manayunk) and 36th (South Philadelphia, mostly Point Breeze and Grays Ferry); open wards 1st, 2nd (both encompassing parts of Northern Liberties and Fishtown), 8th (Center City), 9th (Chestnut Hill, part of Mt. Airy); and 46th (West Philadelphia, Cedar Park, parts of Cobbs Creek and Spruce Hill).

In these eight wards Rabb received:
33,609 votes, 51% of his entire total, with an average percentage of the vote per ward of 62%; won 221 of 240 divisions with two ties, and averaged 140 votes per division. Detailed breakdown here.

Another key Northwest ward was the 50th, where Mayor Parker is Ward Leader and turns out the vote. The Mayor also endorsed Street. Rabb eked out the win despite winning a minority of divisions. Rabb took 13 of 30 divisions and won by 123 votes over Street (14 divisions won). Again, Rabb won by receiving more than 100 votes in seven divisions.

Rabb won two other wards where he won the minority of the divisions, notably in the 51st (Southwest Philadelphia, primarily covering the neighborhoods of Kingsessing and Elmwood), where he won six of 24 divisions, winning by 184 votes. His highest division total was 232, which put Rabb over the top in the Ward.

Turnout elsewhere in district
The awful turnout in other parts of the district was epitomized by the 27th Ward, 20th Division, where Rabb won with, not by, 5 votes. Street and Stanford each received 2 votes. Rabb won seven divisions in the 27th (West Philadelphia, University City mostly around Penn and Drexel) with between 5-22 votes.

Street numbers low
By comparison, my analysis shows that Street won where his number of votes were low. Street won 373 divisions, but he won 84 divisions with less than 40 votes.

In Street’s 11th Ward (North Philadelphia, neighborhoods of Allegheny West/Tioga), he won 18 of 20 divisions with 56% of the vote, but his total ballots in the ward was 873. You can’t win when you receive 873 votes in 20 divisions in your home base while Rabb receives a combined 1,016 votes in 22-01, 22-02 and 22-06.

Street’s best ward vote was 3,384 in the 34th, where he won 41 of 42 divisions, with 100+ votes in nine of them. Stanford’s top ward vote was in the 8th Ward—which she lost.

Division data
At the granular division level, district-wide, Rabb’s strength was drawing triple-digit votes in 113 divisions, with his highest total 380. However, Street’s highest total in a division was 168– losing in that division–and achieved triple digits in only 36 divisions. Stanford’s best division count was 193 and earned triple digits in just 15 divisions. Not a recipe for success when your best total is 212 votes less than another candidate’s best.

While Rabb benefited from voters not showing up in swathes of the district, if Democrats are to win statewide and in national elections, we need a much stronger presence in those weak wards and divisions.

So much for the DCC endorsement–again
Why do I think this happened? The Democratic City Committee endorsement was once coveted by candidates and still is by many. It used to have some cachet. Street had their endorsement. Maybe endorsed candidates have taken for granted that they don’t need a robust field operation because they figure the committee people are going to take care of it and show up on Election Day.The Party doesn’t push canvassing or leave the decision to Ward Leaders. Then, you can’t canvas without information. The Party continues to wait until the last weekend or up until the day before Election Day to disseminate sample ballots to committee persons. For most committee persons, this is the first time they’re seeing the endorsements and they may not agree with them. If they do, there’s no time to canvas. Six years after the introduction of mail ballots, the Party still hasn’t made accommodations for that. By Election Day, many people have already voted. Those who vote on Election Day have probably made up their mind. Those who haven’t been informed about Election Day are at home.

Rabb has battled the Democratic establishment since he first ran in 2016 and beaten back challengers every time. In his first race, he knocked on doors throughout the 200th district. For anti-Democratic establishment progressives, an endorsement by the Committee in a primary is viewed as someone not to vote for (unless on occasions when there might be in agreement). Grassroots organizations like Mt. Airy Democrats, Vote the Ridge in the 21st Ward, Riverwards Votes, Reclaim and open wards are making their own endorsements of progressive candidates, then focusing on getting the vote out for those candidates. They are getting out ahead of the Party, doing what the Party used to do.

Michael Kleiner has been an award-winning journalist and public relations professional for over 30 years, operating his own company since 1999 after working as a sportswriter for newspapers and a publicist for educational institutions. Since 2017, he has served as Business and Sports Editor at The Norwegian American, where he has written almost 300 articles. He has followed politics since he was nine years old. He was a committee person in Ward 22, Division 6 from 2016-2026, where he concentrated on cleaning up the street list, voter registration and analyzing turnout by block. In the 2020 and 2024 Presidential election the division had 90% turnout.He has been hired to advise political campaigns.